Back in 2018, economist Kenneth Rogoff made waves when he boldly predicted that Bitcoin was more likely to crash to $100 than soar to $100,000. Fast forward to today, and BTC is hovering around $60K—far from his bearish call. So, what changed? Rogoff recently opened up about where he went wrong, and his reflections are worth a read.
At the time, Rogoff wasn’t just some random critic. He’s a Harvard professor, former IMF chief economist, and a guy who knows his way around financial crises. His skepticism wasn’t baseless—Bitcoin was volatile, regulators were cracking down, and the whole crypto space felt like the Wild West. But even the sharpest minds miss the mark sometimes.
So, what did he get wrong? Rogoff admits he underestimated Bitcoin’s staying power as a speculative asset. He thought governments would clamp down harder, killing its momentum. Instead, institutions started buying in, ETFs got approved, and Bitcoin became a mainstream talking point. “I didn’t anticipate how deeply it would embed itself in the financial system,” he said.
But here’s the thing—he’s not doing a full 180. Rogoff still thinks Bitcoin’s long-term value is shaky. He points to its lack of intrinsic value, energy-intensive mining, and the fact that most people still use it more for speculation than actual transactions. “It’s not a currency in the traditional sense,” he argues. “It’s a bet on future adoption.”
That said, he’s not dismissing crypto entirely. Rogoff acknowledges that blockchain tech has real potential, especially in areas like decentralized finance and cross-border payments. But Bitcoin? He’s still not convinced it’ll ever be a stable store of value like gold or the dollar.
What’s interesting is how his take reflects a broader shift in how economists view crypto. Back in 2018, Bitcoin was easy to dismiss as a fringe experiment. Now? Even the skeptics are admitting it’s not going away anytime soon. But that doesn’t mean it’s a sure bet.
Rogoff’s mea culpa is a good reminder that even experts get it wrong. Crypto moves fast, and the rules keep changing. Regulatory shifts, tech breakthroughs, and market sentiment can flip the script overnight. So while Bitcoin’s price might make his old prediction look silly, his caution about its fundamentals still holds weight.
At the end of the day, Bitcoin’s story is far from over. Whether it’s a revolutionary asset or a speculative bubble, one thing’s clear: the crypto world keeps defying expectations. And if there’s one lesson from Rogoff’s reversal, it’s that in this space, humility goes a long way.
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